Tackling uncertainty in energy yield forecasts
We were recently invited by PVTech Power magazine to share our thoughts on why yield forecast uncertainty is frequently underestimated and what can be done to resolve it.
· Keith McIntosh · 1 min read
We have an ongoing project here at SunSolve to help the solar industry understand and quantify the uncertainties in energy-yield forecasts (and hence P90, P95 or any other PXX value).
The accurate determination of forecast uncertainties – and the reduction of those uncertainties – helps the PV industry to improve their design and operation of utility-scale solar farms, and to secure better financing terms.
Our article in PVTech Power (excerpt below) describes what we’ve learned about current industry practice regarding forecast uncertainties. It follows on from our presentations at the 2024 PVPMC and ACP R&T.
The article explains why the uncertainty in energy yield forecasts is frequently underestimated, the ramifications of that error, and the steps that the PV industry is taking to improve forecasts.
One of those steps is the release of new software in 2025 that determines PXX for PVSyst, SunSolve or any other yield-forecasting tool.
If you would like to be informed when our new PXX software is released, or want to find out more about our work on uncertainty, please contact us for more information.